Wall Street's Losing Streak Hits Four as Oil Tops $100 and Yields Soar

US stocks sank on Thursday as oil prices and Treasury yields continued to climb and investors assessed fresh wholesale inflation data. Oil surged more than 7%. Treasury yields hit their highest level in nearly three years. And a hot producer price report pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week sharply higher.

WTI crude settled up 7.19% at $102.96, with Brent touching $105 intraday. The move came after Iran signaled it has no intention of standing down against a U.S. naval blockade, and President Trump said the conflict would continue past the November midterms with no meaningful gasoline relief before then. The Dow fell 316.56 points, or 0.60%, to 52,064.10 — its fourth straight losing session.

The damage was broad but not uniform. Every major index and nearly every sector ETF closed lower. Semiconductors bore the brunt of the selling: SOXX and SMH each fell more than double the Nasdaq's decline, as investors de-risked ahead of Oracle's earnings report tonight — a closely watched read on AI infrastructure spending. The VIX jumped 9.41% to 18.01, its sharpest one-day move of the week, a sign that today's selling carried more genuine anxiety than Wednesday's more orderly rotation.

The numbers, by the close

Sector and asset ETF scoreboard

All figures below are confirmed closing prices and changes from the prior close.

Nothing on the scoreboard closed higher today except the VIX itself — a genuinely broad-based down day. The standout divergence was energy: XLE fell 0.58% even as crude oil settled up more than 7%, suggesting investors are more focused on the demand-destruction risk of sustained triple-digit oil than on the near-term margin boost to producers. Semiconductors were the clearest casualty, with SOXX and SOXX both falling more than double the Nasdaq's decline as positioning ahead of Oracle's earnings weighed on the group.

Market temperature and volatility

A near-double-digit percentage jump in the VIX on a day when oil spiked, yields surged, and rate-hike odds repriced sharply higher points to real anxiety building rather than routine rebalancing. Still, at 18.01 the VIX remains well below levels associated with genuine market stress, suggesting options markets are pricing in elevated near-term uncertainty — largely tied to tonight's Oracle report and Friday's CPI — rather than a broader loss of confidence in the market's footing.

Rates, dollar, gold, and crypto

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.914% intraday, its highest level since October 31, 2023, as this morning's hot PPI report (wholesale inflation up 5.4% year-over-year) compounded the pressure from surging oil prices. The mechanism is straightforward: higher energy costs feed expectations for broader inflation, and investors are demanding a bigger payout from bonds to compensate, pushing prices down and yields up. Gold, often a beneficiary of exactly this kind of geopolitical and inflation risk, instead fell sharply — GLD dropped 1.73% and spot gold fell 2.19% to $4,362.80 — which points to sharply higher real yields overwhelming gold's usual safe-haven bid today.

Crypto was mixed: bitcoin fell 1.28% to $77,298.35, with the IBIT ETF down 1.38%, broadly in line with the day's risk-off tone, while ether held essentially flat, down just 0.01% to $2,467.18 — a notable divergence from bitcoin given the same macro backdrop.

Sectors: leaders and laggards

There were no genuine gainers on the ETF scoreboard today — every sector and asset class tracked closed lower except volatility itself. The dispersion was still meaningful: semiconductors absorbed by far the worst of the selling, while financials and cybersecurity held up comparatively well.

The day's market-moving stories

1. Iran escalates rhetoric against the U.S. naval blockade

Iran signaled it has no intention of backing down in the face of an American naval blockade and warned it will escalate its strikes if the U.S. continues attacking Iranian territory. The statement removes any near-term hope of de-escalation and is the clearest single driver behind today's jump in oil prices.

2. Oil surges more than 7%

WTI crude settled up 7.19% at $102.96, while Brent touched $105 a barrel intraday, extending a run that began earlier this week. The move reflects growing concern that the conflict could disrupt regional energy supply for an extended period rather than resolve quickly.

3. Trump says the war continues past the midterms, with no near-term gas relief

President Trump said the conflict would only end after the November midterm elections and that meaningful gasoline price relief would not arrive before then. According to a note from economist Gary Shilling, the national average for regular unleaded has already spent 122 days — about half of 2026 — at or above $4 per gallon, a streak that now looks likely to extend.

4. Hot PPI pushes Fed rate-hike odds to 76%

August wholesale inflation rose 5.4% year-over-year, ahead of the 5.3% estimate and well above July's pace, even though the monthly core reading came in slightly soft. Fed fund futures responded by pushing the implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at next week's FOMC meeting to roughly 76%, up sharply from about 60% a day earlier.

5. The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 34-month high

The 10-year yield touched 4.914% intraday, its highest level since October 31, 2023, as the hot PPI report compounded pressure from surging oil prices. Higher energy costs are feeding inflation expectations, and bond investors are demanding a larger payout to compensate.

6. The ECB delivers its second hike of 2026

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, citing euro-area inflation that hit 3.3% in August on a 14.3% jump in energy costs tied to the same Middle East conflict pressuring U.S. markets. The move marks the ECB's second hike this year and underscores that the energy-price shock is a global, not just domestic, story.

7. Jobless claims give the Fed little cover

Initial jobless claims came in at 206,000 for the week of September 5, essentially unchanged from the prior week, while continuing claims fell to 1,774,000. Neither reading shows the kind of labor-market slack that would let the Fed look past hot inflation data, reinforcing the case for a hawkish surprise next week.

8. Adobe beats on earnings but shares fall anyway

Adobe reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $6.13 per share, $0.05 ahead of consensus, on revenue up 12.9% year-over-year to $6.76 billion, also ahead of estimates. AI-first annualized recurring revenue grew more than 150% year-over-year, and total ARR reached $27.5 billion. Even so, in-line Q4 guidance failed to meet the market's higher bar, and shares fell roughly 2.4% on the day.

9. Oracle beats and raises after the close

Oracle reported fiscal Q1 results after the bell, beating on both lines: adjusted EPS of $1.92 versus a $1.74 estimate, and revenue up 29.6% year-over-year to $19.34 billion. Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% and remaining performance obligations climbed $209 billion year-over-year to $664 billion, though free cash flow turned negative $5 billion on continued data center investment. The stock had fallen roughly 3.7% into the print; see the earnings section below for the full breakdown.

10. Nasdaq deepens its tokenization push with a $100 million Payward investment

Nasdaq Ventures is investing $100 million in Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, valuing the company at $21 billion and expanding a partnership aimed at launching tokenized, voting-enabled equities through Payward's xStocks platform in 2027. The deal adds to a broader pattern of traditional exchange operators taking direct stakes in crypto infrastructure.

Movers below the headlines

Today's clearest single-stock moves were earnings-related:

Earnings spotlight

Two major reports are now in: Adobe before today's open, and Oracle after the close.

Adobe: strength beneath the headline numbers

Total annualized recurring revenue stood at $27.50 billion, with AI-first ARR growing more than 150% year-over-year — genuine AI-driven momentum that still wasn't enough to lift the stock today.

Oracle: the full breakdown

Guidance was mixed but broadly reassuring. Q2 EPS guidance of $1.85-1.93 came in roughly in line with the $1.89 consensus, with total cloud revenue expected to grow 64-70% in constant currency. FY27 EPS guidance ticked up slightly to $8.10 from $8.05 previously, against an $8.07 estimate, and full-year revenue guidance was reaffirmed at "at least $90 billion."

After last quarter's disappointment over reaffirmed-not-raised guidance, tonight's combination of an outright EPS beat, accelerating cloud growth, and a small upward guidance revision looks like the kind of print that could ease some of the AI-capex anxiety that hit semiconductor stocks earlier in today's session — though the negative free cash flow is a reminder of just how capital-intensive this buildout remains.

Key market & macro risks to watch

What to watch next

The takeaway

• Oil and rates are now the dominant story, full stop. A 7%+ single-day move in crude and a 34-month high in the 10-year yield are driving nearly every other market move this week, from gold's surprising decline to small-cap underperformance.
• The Fed's decision just got a lot less certain. A jump from 60% to 76% hike odds in a single day shows how sensitive markets are right now — and how much weight Friday's CPI report now carries.
• Oracle's earnings tonight are a referendum on AI infrastructure spending. Today's outsized semiconductor selloff shows the market is already nervous about the read-through; a weak print could extend that pressure well beyond one stock.

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