ASML Crushes Q3 Estimates, Raises Its 2026 Outlook and Warns AI Demand Will Outrun Its Factories Through 2028

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines chipmakers need to print advanced chips, beat third-quarter earnings estimates, raised its 2026 sales outlook and warned that customer demand will exceed its planned production capacity in 2027 and 2028. The report is a strong read-through for the AI infrastructure build-out, because ASML sits upstream of every leading-edge chip maker.

The quarter

Sales were a record and near the top of ASML's own guidance. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said sales from servicing and upgrading machines already in customers' factories beat guidance, which lifted the gross margin above what the company had forecast. ASML sold 113 new lithography systems in the quarter, up from 86 in the second quarter. Net income also included a roughly €500 million gain from revaluing its first investment tranche in Mistral AI, according to a BigGo Finance summary of the call, so the profit beat is somewhat flattered by that one-time item.

The outlook

The fourth-quarter range sits well above what analysts had pencilled in. The company also said its 2026 margin guidance does not yet include any benefit from price increases, which come next.

Demand is outrunning supply

The headline message is capacity. Fouquet said customers are raising their short- and medium-term demand forecasts, driven mainly by their views on AI-related investment, and some want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. ASML's plan to expand capacity by about 30% in 2027 and again in 2028 will not be enough. "30% in 2027, 30% in 2028 will not allow us to meet our customer demand," he said, per the Investing.com transcript.

ASML is studying ways to add capacity beyond that plan, including upgrading existing equipment and raising how many wafers its machines process per hour. It expects to ship about 65 of its most advanced EUV systems in 2026, more than 50% above 2025.

The company will also start charging more. ASML says its value-based pricing talks with key customers are done, with the effect beginning partly in 2027 and fully in 2028 and beyond. The company gave no specific price figures.

Shareholder returns

ASML repurchased about €4.1 billion of its shares in the quarter under its 2026–2028 buyback program and declared an interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable November 4.

The stock

Shares rose about 2% in Amsterdam trading on the report, according to the information provided to us, extending 2026 gains to nearly 70%. We could not independently confirm either figure. Ahead of the report, ASML's U.S.-listed shares closed Tuesday at $1,717.76, down 1.86%, and slipped further after hours, per Investing.com, so Wednesday's reaction needs a live quote before it is cited.

Why it matters for other chip stocks

ASML is a bellwether because every leading-edge chipmaker needs its tools. A claim that demand exceeds supply through 2028 suggests chipmakers plan to keep spending on AI-related capacity for years. It also lands in a week when memory and chip stocks have been under pressure over China and peak-cycle worries. Risks remain: ASML depends on a small group of large customers, a pullback in their spending would hit it directly, and ramping output while holding quality is an execution challenge. China is expected to fall to about 20% of ASML's business from roughly 30% in 2025, per BigGo.