Bernstein Keeps Robinhood at Outperform, Sees 69% Upside to $160 on Prediction Markets

Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating on Robinhood (HOOD) on Wednesday with a $160 price target, which implies about 69% upside from Tuesday's close of $94.61. Analyst Gautam Chhugani expects prediction markets, crypto infrastructure and new products to drive growth over the next 12 to 18 months. The call follows Robinhood's third-quarter report, after which the shares fell in after-hours trading, as provided to MarketCatalyst. The note details below are as relayed to MarketCatalyst, and we could not read the full report.

Bernstein's case

According to the note as relayed to us, Bernstein points to four drivers.

Prediction markets. Third-quarter revenue surged about sixfold from a year ago, and revenue from non-sports contracts rose 30%. Bernstein sees expansion beyond sports betting as a key growth driver.

Rothera. Robinhood's derivatives exchange and clearinghouse became its 14th business to exceed $100 million in annualized revenue.

Crypto infrastructure. Robinhood Chain has generated roughly $100 billion of on-chain exchange volume since launch, with about 200 equity tokens available and growing interest in perpetual futures.

Business mix. Bernstein expects the shift from retail crypto trading toward broader financial infrastructure to support growth as U.S. regulations and market structures evolve.

The $160 target is not new. Bernstein first raised it from $130 in July, when it also said prediction-market revenue could overtake crypto trading revenue. Wednesday's note reiterates it. By our calculation, the target is about 69% above the $94.61 close.

What Robinhood's own results show

Robinhood's third-quarter release supports most of the prediction-market points.

Two of Bernstein's figures are not in the company release: the 30% rise in non-sports contract revenue and the roughly 200 equity tokens. Bernstein's $100 billion Robinhood Chain volume is also above the release's $80 billion for the third quarter, which may reflect a later date, and we could not verify it. The release also reported that earnings per share fell 16% from a year earlier, a point the target does not address.

Where the Street stands

Of 33 analysts covering Robinhood, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy and five rate it Hold, according to LSEG as provided to MarketCatalyst. By our calculation, that leaves one analyst with a different rating, and the Buy share is about 82%.

What to watch

Bernstein's thesis leans on prediction markets spreading beyond sports, so the pace of non-sports growth is the key test. Event-contract volume has been concentrated in major sporting events, which can make revenue lumpy. Rules for derivatives, crypto and tokenized stocks are still evolving, and the target assumes a favorable path. Stock moves can also diverge from price targets in the short term.

Sources: Robinhood, third-quarter 2026 results (Oct. 28). The Bernstein note details, analyst counts and the Tuesday close of $94.61 are as relayed to MarketCatalyst or from market data. This is informational, not a recommendation to buy or sell.