Dow Falls for Third Day as Hormuz Deal Hopes and Meta's Rally Offset Surging Treasury Yields
Stocks pared losses Thursday as revived hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz offset pressure from rising Treasury yields, with Meta and Eli Lilly leading gains while Oracle and AI-trade names weighed on the tape.
Stocks pared a chunk of Thursday's losses after Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, offsetting renewed pressure from Treasury yields sitting at multidecade highs. The Dow fell for a third straight session, weighed down by cyclical names sensitive to elevated rates, while the S&P and Nasdaq clawed all the way back to essentially flat. Meta and Eli Lilly led the gainers, while Oracle and other AI-infrastructure names weighed on the tape.
The numbers, by the close
| Index | Close | Point Change | % Change | Session Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | -1.90 | -0.02% | Clawed back from steeper losses on Hormuz-deal hopes. |
| DJIA | 51,349.98 | -161.61 | -0.31% | Third straight losing session as elevated yields weigh on cyclicals. |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,939.37 | +3.34 | +0.01% | Eked out a gain, helped by Meta's rally. |
| Russell 2000 | 2,835.58 | -3.08 | -0.11% | Small caps stayed pressured by high rates. |
| CBOE VIX ($VIX) | 15.61 | +0.43 | +2.83% | Ticked up but still low, despite yield stress and a huge geopolitical week. |
ETF scoreboard
A quiet, mixed session overall, but Treasuries stood out: TLT's -1.29% move was the day's single sharpest, underscoring how much further yields pushed higher.
Equal-weight tech (QQEW) lagged cap-weighted QQQ — unlike Monday, this week's mega-caps (Meta) carried more of the load than the broader group.
Energy was the day's only real sector winner as oil rallied 3.4%; cybersecurity (CIBR) was the weakest sector.
TLT's drop was the day's sharpest single move — long bonds are feeling the yield spike far more than credit is.
Both slipped modestly; no clear safe-haven or risk-asset bid today.
Rose off a multi-week low, but 15.61 is still a historically calm reading for a day with a state-visit summit and a bond-market selloff in play.
Rates, dollar, gold, and crypto
The Treasury selloff continued: 30-year yields have pushed to their highest since 2004, and the 10-year traded around an estimated 5.19% — up modestly from Wednesday's confirmed 5.116% close — based on TLT's sharp -1.29% move today. Strong recent activity data and a weak five-year auction Wednesday kept the pressure on. Gold and bitcoin both slipped slightly, while ether ticked up.
| Asset | Close or Yield | Daily Change | % Change | Main Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Yield | ≈5.19% | — | — | Estimated from TLT's move versus Wednesday's confirmed 5.116% close; still near multidecade highs. |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,307.30 | -$11.10 | -0.26% | Modest slippage; no safe-haven bid despite yield stress. |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $84,228.79 | -$6.68 | -0.01% | Essentially flat. |
| Ether (ETH/USD) | $2,690.25 | +$5.81 | +0.22% | Small gain, broadly in line with a quiet crypto session. |
| Crude Oil (WTI, Nov '26) | $95.29 | +$3.13 | +3.40% | Rallied even as Hormuz-deal hopes built — a reminder the deal remains unconfirmed and oil's underlying trend stays upward for now. |
Sectors: leaders and laggards
Bars below are scaled to the day's widest sector mover (CIBR, -0.79%), sorted best to worst:
A notable role reversal from earlier in the week: energy led instead of lagged, as oil's rally outweighed Hormuz-deal hopes, while the chip trade that carried Monday and Tuesday cooled off. One caveat on this ETF-based view: our scoreboard doesn't track a communication-services ETF, and on an S&P sector-index basis, communication services (+1.9%) was actually the day's top-performing sector outright, driven almost entirely by Meta's 4.50% surge — ahead of energy's ETF-led gain.
The geopolitical backdrop
Today's tape unfolded against two major geopolitical threads. First, Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal in which Iran would allow shipping traffic to transit the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade — the report that helped stocks pare their losses, even though oil itself still rallied 3.4% on the day, a sign the deal remains unconfirmed and far from finalized. Second, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington today for a three-day state visit, with a formal White House meeting and state dinner alongside President Trump, covering tariffs, critical minerals, and AI — the culmination of the week's biggest scheduled catalyst.
Other market-moving stories
Meta was the session's single biggest story on the corporate side. Shares moved firmly in the opposite direction of the broader market's cautious tone, closing at $777.59 (+4.50%) and reaching year-to-date highs, extending the stock's gain since the start of September to roughly 36% — with the rally accelerating specifically after the launch of Muse. The early reception to the AI agent has given investors a clearer path toward monetizing Meta's substantial AI investments, and it propelled communication services (+1.9%) to the top of the day's sector standings, ahead of even energy's oil-driven bounce. Elsewhere, Eli Lilly shares also popped, and together the two names did much of the work keeping the Nasdaq and S&P out of negative territory, while Oracle and other AI-infrastructure names weighed on the tape — consistent with Oracle's force majeure notice over its New Mexico Project Jupiter data center, which separately dragged energy partner Bloom Energy sharply lower in pre-market trading. Treasury pressure remained the dominant macro thread: strong recent activity data and a weak five-year note auction have pushed yields across the curve to multidecade highs, with 30-year yields now at their highest level since 2004.
Key market & macro risks to watch
Stocks rallied on a Reuters report of negotiations, not a signed deal — and oil still rose 3.4% today. If talks stall or reports prove premature, today's relief could reverse quickly.
30-year yields are at their highest since 2004, and TLT's -1.29% move suggests the 10-year is pushing well past 5%. Continued Treasury weakness is the single biggest headwind to equity valuations right now.
Oracle's force majeure notice and its drag on the AI trade, alongside Bloom Energy's sharp pre-market decline, is a reminder that individual project and permitting delays can hit AI-infrastructure stocks hard even in a week dominated by bigger macro headlines.
What to watch next
The takeaway
- Today was a tug-of-war, not a trend. Hormuz-deal hope offset yield pressure almost exactly, leaving the S&P and Nasdaq flat while the Dow logged a third straight down day.
- Energy led for once. After lagging most of the week, XLE topped the sector table as oil rallied 3.4%, even as the same oil move undercut the bullish Hormuz narrative.
- All eyes are on tonight's Trump-Xi dinner and tomorrow's close of the state visit. Markets are holding a fairly calm VIX reading given how much is genuinely still undecided this week.
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