KeyBanc Says Google Is Discussing Memory Supply Deals Through 2035 as HP and Dell Lock In Contracts Into 2031

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said customers are locking up memory supply for far longer than the industry is used to. After Asia supply-chain checks, he reported that Google is discussing memory agreements that run through 2035, while HP and Dell are extending contracts into 2031. KeyBanc reads that as a sign that AI-driven memory demand could stay strong for years, and as particularly good news for Micron (MU).

What KeyBanc is hearing

We could not open KeyBanc's note itself, so these figures come from a summary of it and from Motley Fool's account of Vinh's views, which says he expects Q4 DRAM prices up 15% to 20% year over year and NAND up 20%. Fool adds that Vinh expects memory makers to shift production toward AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is what squeezes consumer supply. KeyBanc's findings also carry implications for SK Hynix and Samsung, because long-term contracts can improve demand visibility.

Why long contracts matter

Memory has historically swung between shortage and glut, so multi-year commitments change how investors value the group. Micron already has long-term agreements with customers covering DRAM and NAND through 2030, and had signed 26 of them as of its fiscal fourth quarter, including ten in that quarter, according to Trefis. About three-quarters of the related revenue uses a pricing framework, usually with a floor and a ceiling, and management has said it expects the market to stay tight through 2028.

The ceiling is the catch. Some analysts have warned that contracts with capped prices could limit how much memory makers benefit if spot prices keep climbing, according to BigGo Finance.

What other data shows

Those numbers come from MoneyToday's October 15 roundup. They point the same way as KeyBanc's forecast, though they are separate estimates from different firms.

The stock

Micron had fallen four straight days through Thursday after China's CXMT announced a 4F² DRAM design on Monday, which investors read as a threat to Micron's market share. It was down 2.8% at $897.57 at 10:35 a.m. ET Thursday and 13.5% lower for the week, according to Motley Fool, with a market value of about $1.05 trillion and a 52-week range of $192.40 to $1,255.00. We did not have a Friday quote at the time of writing, so check live prices. Vinh has argued the China fear is overblown, saying CXMT's DRAM is two or three generations behind and weakest in HBM, Micron's most profitable segment.