Serve Robotics Slides 10% to a 52-Week Low as the Uber Reset Keeps Weighing on the Stock

Shares of Serve Robotics (SERV) fell 10.0% to close at $3.92 on Monday, Oct. 12, a fresh 52-week low. We did not find a new company announcement behind today's drop. The pressure traces to August, when Serve slashed its 2026 revenue outlook and said it does not expect to renew its Uber agreement when it expires in early 2027 unless the operating model improves. The stock traded near $5.09 right after that report and is now roughly 79% below its 52-week high of $18.64.

The reset: what Serve changed in August

With its second-quarter report, Serve cut 2026 revenue guidance to $9 million to $10 million from $26 million, and lowered its spending plans alongside it.

Figures are from Serve's second-quarter release filed with the SEC and the earnings call transcript. Serve's release does not restate the prior revenue range; the $26 million figure comes from the call and analyst coverage.

Why Uber is at the center

Serve said the cut mainly removes a second-half ramp it had expected from Uber Eats, not revenue it already had. Uber delivery volume had grown for 17 straight quarters through the first quarter, then fell in the second. CEO Ali Kashani said, "This was caused by lower-than-expected robot utilization."

Serve attributed the decline to differing views with Uber on how to run the shared autonomous fleet, including fleet coordination and merchant integration, not to a drop in customer demand. It does not expect to renew the agreement in early 2027 "unless we can improve the operating model meaningfully," while saying it remains open to talks. The company is shifting toward direct merchant relationships, other marketplace partners, advertising and healthcare robotics.

That is a reset, not a clean break, but it leaves a large part of the business without a visible replacement. DoorDash revenue grew nearly 50% sequentially and beat expectations, and Serve said a new, unnamed marketplace partner would be announced "in the coming weeks."

The economics are still the bear case

The second quarter showed how far Serve is from covering its costs. Revenue was $3.2 million, up 404% from a year earlier and 9% from the first quarter. Against that, gross loss was $8.8 million, a gross margin of about -271%, and the GAAP net loss was $64.1 million, or $0.80 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $44.5 million, wider than $36.3 million in the first quarter.

Fleet activity slipped. Daily active robots averaged 792, down from 812, and daily supply hours fell to 9,809 from 10,295. Management said a positive gross margin is "inevitable" but gave no timeline, and the company gave no break-even date.

The balance sheet is the cushion. Serve ended June with $240.4 million in cash and marketable securities, which gives it room to keep investing while it rebuilds its partner mix.

What analysts did

Guggenheim cut its price target to $7 from $13 and kept a Buy rating, and Oppenheimer cut its target to $7 from $20 and kept Outperform, both citing the weaker revenue outlook and the shift away from Uber. With the stock at $3.92, both targets sit well above the current price, but they were set before this latest leg down.