Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, Five Fed Speakers and the First Big Earnings of Q3 Season

Wall Street heads into the week of October 5–9 with the Nasdaq at a record after a weak September jobs report cooled bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. The calendar is lighter than usual, but it is not quiet: the minutes of the Fed's September meeting land on Wednesday, five Fed officials are scheduled to speak, and PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines give the market an early read on consumer demand as third-quarter earnings season gets under way. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.28% after touching its highest level since 2002 last week, how bonds react to each of these events may matter as much as the events themselves.

The week at a glance

Macro: the Fed is in wait-and-see mode

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first increase since 2023, in a 12–0 vote. Sixteen of 19 policymakers projected at least one more hike this year. Since then the picture has softened: September payrolls rose by only 29,000, well below forecasts of roughly 84,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Futures now put the odds of a hold at the October 27–28 meeting at about 83%, although the chance of another hike by December remains above 75%.

The minutes (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET). The minutes cover a meeting that happened before the jobs miss, so they look backward. What markets will read for is how broadly officials supported the hike, how many leaned toward more tightening, and how they discussed energy prices and inflation. Hawkish language could push yields back toward their highs; a more cautious tone would reinforce the pause that stocks celebrated on Friday.

The speakers. Bowman, Logan and Williams speak Tuesday, Musalem Thursday and Collins Friday. After the September hike, Vice Chair John Williams said officials could wait for more data before acting, so any change in that message would be notable.

Economic data to watch

A caveat: a federal government shutdown began this week, and analysts have warned it could delay some official data releases if it drags on. Private-sector reports such as the ISM surveys, plus corporate earnings, carry extra weight in the meantime.

Earnings to watch

The slate is thin, but several names offer read-throughs on the consumer, tariffs, fuel costs and AI infrastructure. The "implied move" is the size of the one-day swing that options traders are pricing in.

Constellation Brands (Tuesday)

The Corona and Modelo brewer is down about 18% this year and touched a six-year low on September 30. The market will focus on beer depletions, demand from Hispanic consumers (roughly half of beer sales) and the cost of tariffs on aluminum cans. Management's full-year guidance calls for beer net sales between a 1% decline and a 1% increase. As a consumer-staples bellwether, a weak print would add to worries about a stretched household.

Levi Strauss and Applied Digital (Wednesday)

Levi shares have slipped below $20 despite a raised full-year outlook in July. Denim demand, tariff costs and gross margin are the swing factors. Applied Digital, an AI data-center developer, carries the biggest implied move of the large names. It recently brought another 75 megawatts online at its North Dakota campus, taking critical IT load to 250 megawatts, and investors will want an update on leasing, construction timelines and financing. Because the stock trades at about half its May peak, the report doubles as a sentiment check on the AI-infrastructure trade.

PepsiCo (Thursday)

PepsiCo is down about 12.5% this year and recently broke below chart support near $128. Investors will watch North American snack volumes, the pace of price increases (it has reportedly planned to raise prices on some chips and sodas after earlier cuts) and the full-year outlook. Because it reports before the open, PepsiCo effectively kicks off the consumer-staples earnings season.

Delta Air Lines (Friday)

Delta is up about 21% this year and is the best performer of the group. It guided to mid-teens revenue growth and double-digit margins for the September quarter, and affirmed full-year adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.50. The key items are fourth-quarter guidance, premium and corporate travel demand, and jet fuel costs, which hit record levels last quarter. The report also gives an early look at how fuel prices are flowing through to margins.

Also reporting: RPM International and Lamb Weston (Tuesday morning), Penguin Solutions and Worthington Steel (Tuesday evening), Tilray and Helen of Troy (Thursday morning). NovaGold has the widest implied move of the week as it moves to take full ownership of the Donlin gold project in Alaska.

Other forces shaping the week

• Treasury yields. The 10-year touched 5.342% on October 1, the highest since April 2002, and closed Friday at 5.28%. A strong 10-year auction would help; a weak one could add pressure to rate-sensitive areas such as small caps, REITs and dividend funds.
• Energy and the Iran conflict. Oil prices remain elevated because of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. That feeds directly into inflation expectations, the Fed's thinking and airline and consumer margins.
• The AI trade. Micron's blowout quarter last week lifted chips, and Nvidia reached a record on Friday. The Applied Digital report will show whether that enthusiasm extends to infrastructure builders.
• The shutdown. Besides possible data delays, a prolonged shutdown leaves the Fed with less information ahead of its October 27–28 meeting.

How the week could move markets

Four drivers will do most of the work this week. For each, here is what a good and a bad outcome would likely mean for stocks:

The common thread is the 10-year yield. Friday's rally came as yields fell after the jobs report, then reversed higher by the close, so anything that pushes yields lower is likely to help stocks and anything that pushes them back toward their highs is likely to hurt.