Week Ahead: Midterms, Apple and AMD Earnings and the Jobs Report Test a Shaken Market
After the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025, a dense calendar of earnings, rate-sensitive data and political risk arrives just as December hike odds sit near 70%.
Wall Street opens November after the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% on Oct. 30 and 5.2% for October, its worst month since March 2025, as covered in our Research Desk analysis. The week of Nov. 2-6 brings the first major tech earnings since that selloff, U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, a Treasury refunding announcement and the October jobs report on Friday, with December rate-hike odds hovering around 70% or higher.
Where the market stands
| Measure | Oct. 30 close | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | About 25,437 | -2.86% on the day; -5.2% in October |
| S&P 500 | About 7,580 | -1.8% on the day; -1.2% in October |
| VIX | About 19.4 | Intraday high near 23.9 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | About 4.93% | Near 4.98% a day earlier |
| WTI crude | About $103 | Near $102 at the Sunday reopen |
| Gold | About $3,885 | -3.6% on Friday |
| Fed funds target range | 3.75%-4.00% | Held Oct. 28 in a 10-2 vote |
Closing levels vary slightly by data provider, so figures are approximate. The Fed decision is covered in our Fed decision article.
The week at a glance
| Day | Key events (ET) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov. 2 | ISM manufacturing (10:00 AM); Treasury borrowing estimates (3:00 PM); Fed's Goolsbee; Apple and Palantir after the close | Prices-paid readings and the first mega-cap report since the selloff |
| Tue, Nov. 3 | Midterm elections; JOLTS (10:00 AM); RBA decision; AMD after the close | Political gap risk overnight; AI chip demand |
| Wed, Nov. 4 | Treasury refunding statement (8:30 AM); ADP; ISM services (10:00 AM); Uber before the open; Qualcomm and Arm after the close | Auction sizes matter with the 10-year near 5% |
| Thu, Nov. 5 | Jobless claims; productivity and costs (8:30 AM); Bank of England decision; Fed's Hammack and Barkin; Airbnb, Cloudflare and Atlassian after the close | Last labor-market read before Friday |
| Fri, Nov. 6 | October jobs report (8:30 AM); Fed's Logan, Williams and Musalem; consumer sentiment | The biggest event for December Fed odds |
Event times are from published calendars and some speaker times were not confirmed, so check for updates during the week.
Key company earnings
| Day | Before the open | After the close |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov. 2 | Marriott, IDEXX, Estee Lauder, Tempus AI | Apple, Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ON Semiconductor |
| Tue, Nov. 3 | Shopify, Pfizer, Eaton, Ferrari, Upstart | AMD, Super Micro Computer, Arista Networks, Booking Holdings, Block, Astera Labs |
| Wed, Nov. 4 | Uber, McDonald's, CVS Health, Novo Nordisk, Datadog, Circle | Qualcomm, Arm, DoorDash, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Snap, Coherent |
| Thu, Nov. 5 | ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Sony, Parker Hannifin, Unity | Airbnb, Cloudflare, Atlassian, Monster Beverage, DraftKings, Lumentum |
| Fri, Nov. 6 | Charter Communications, Moderna, Vistra, Enbridge | None of note |
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Monday, with a call at 5:00 PM ET, and AMD reports Tuesday with a call at the same time, according to company announcements. Consensus for Apple is near $2.00 per share. McDonald's, Novo Nordisk and some other timings are listed as expected and may change; the list is a selection, not every reporter.
- Apple. Investors will look at iPhone demand, services growth, margins and any AI product commentary. It is the first megacap report since Alphabet and Amazon raised questions about AI spending, covered in our Alphabet recap.
- Palantir and AMD. Both are judged on forward guidance and AI demand. AMD, Qualcomm and Arm test whether AI chip enthusiasm survives a market that has become less tolerant of cautious outlooks.
- Super Micro and Astera Labs. AI server and connectivity demand, a read on whether data-center spending is still accelerating.
- Qualcomm and Arm. Smartphone demand, licensing trends and the data-center opportunity.
- Block, Snap and DraftKings. Digital payments, advertising and consumer engagement.
- Uber, DoorDash and Airbnb. Consumer spending and travel demand under high energy prices and rate worries.
- Memory read-through. Kioxia's soft outlook, covered in our Kioxia article, makes commentary on chip pricing and demand more important.
Key economic data
| Release | Day | Prior reading | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM manufacturing | Mon | 54.5; prices paid 77.9 | Input-cost pressure feeds hike expectations |
| JOLTS job openings | Tue | 7.1 million (August) | Labor demand signal |
| ADP private payrolls | Wed | 90,000 (September) | Preview of Friday's report |
| ISM services | Wed | 54.9 | Services inflation and activity |
| Challenger job cuts | Thu | 43,300 (September) | Layoff trend |
| Jobless claims | Thu | Four-week average near 197,800 | Low claims support the hike case |
| October jobs report | Fri | +29,000; unemployment 4.2%; wages +0.1% | Consensus is roughly +55,000 to +65,000 |
Friday's report carries the most weight. September payrolls were weak, so a firm number with solid wage growth would keep a December hike in play, while a miss would test the roughly 70% odds. The unemployment rate is expected to hold near 4.2%.
Fed and central banks
- Policy rate. The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct. 28, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. The next FOMC meeting is Dec. 9.
- December odds. Futures implied roughly a 70% chance of a hike as of Oct. 30 in one measure and closer to 80% or more in others. These are market-implied probabilities, not Fed commitments.
- Fed speakers. Goolsbee on Monday, Hammack and Barkin on Thursday, and Logan, Williams and Musalem on Friday. Logan said on Oct. 30 that she sees a need for at least two more hikes, according to one report.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (Tue). Markets expect a 25-basis-point hike to 4.85%.
- Bank of England (Thu). The rate is 3.75%. Previews are split, with some expecting a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00% and others no change.
Macro and geopolitical events
- U.S. midterm elections (Tue). Control of Congress is at stake and results will arrive overnight into Wednesday, which raises the risk of gaps in index futures. We make no prediction on the outcome.
- Treasury refunding (Mon and Wed). Borrowing estimates come Monday afternoon and the refunding statement Wednesday morning. Any change in auction sizes or a shift toward longer maturities would matter with the 10-year yield near 5%.
- Oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of tanker incidents and ongoing talks keep crude and inflation expectations sensitive to headlines. Our gold and silver recap shows how oil and rate bets also moved metals.
- Crypto stress. The suspected exchange hack covered in our Binance article remains a risk-appetite factor.
What investors should watch
| Signal | Level or trigger to note | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year yield | 4.98% recent high; 5.00% psychological level | A break above 5% would pressure growth stocks |
| December hike odds | Around 70%, or above 80% on some measures | Hot data pushes it higher, weak data lower |
| VIX | Above 23.9 intraday high, then 25 | Signals rising stress |
| S&P 500 | Holding the 7,580 area | Friday's close is the line to defend |
| WTI crude | Above $103 | Feeds inflation and rate-hike bets |
| Guidance tone | AI demand from Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Arm | Markets have punished cautious outlooks |
| Breadth | Selling spreading beyond tech | Would signal a broader risk-off move |
Scenarios for the week
These are scenarios to help frame the week, not predictions.
| Scenario | What it could look like |
|---|---|
| Relief | Softer prices-paid and jobs data trim hike odds; Apple and AMD guide with confidence; an orderly election outcome; oversold tech rebounds |
| Choppy | Mixed earnings and data keep indexes in a wide range while investors wait for Friday |
| Further pressure | Hot data and wages lift hike odds; cautious AI guidance; larger-than-expected auction sizes lift yields above 5%; oil spikes |
Sources: Earnings dates and call times are from company announcements, including Apple and AMD investor relations, and published earnings calendars. Economic data and Fed information are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar, the Federal Reserve and Treasury schedules as published. Consensus, market-implied odds and speaker times are from market data and previews and will change. This analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
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