Brent Crude Plunges 20% From Friday's High to Below $95, a Two-Month Low, on Iran Talk Hopes
The slide wipes out the war premium built up over the past week, but Iranian officials still call Washington's response unsatisfactory.
Brent crude fell below $95 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest level in two months and about 20% below last Friday's intraday high. The slide came as markets bet on a diplomatic settlement to the eight-month-long U.S.-Iran conflict, which has disrupted global energy supplies, and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent's path since Friday
| Date | Brent | Move | What was happening |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 30 | $117.64 intraday high | — | Recent peak for Brent |
| Nov. 2 | $104.77 | -7.6% | Iran's foreign minister said talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were continuing; the biggest one-day drop since July |
| Nov. 3 | $103.60 settle | -1.1% | A U.S. industry report showed a 5.267 million-barrel crude draw against an expected 2.1 million-barrel build |
| Nov. 4 | Below $95 | About -8% | Lowest in two months, less than a day after the midterm elections |
By our calculation, a 20% drop from $117.64 puts Brent near $94.10, and the fall to Tuesday's $103.60 settle was already about 12%, so Wednesday's move added roughly another 8%.
What is pushing prices down
- Diplomacy. Iran has signaled openness to talks, Qatar is mediating, and discussions in Abu Dhabi are scheduled for Nov. 10 and 11.
- Hormuz. Traders are pricing a lower chance of escalation as talks on reopening the strait continue, which has been central to the war premium in crude.
- Broken support. Brent fell through the $97.36 low that market analysts had been watching, a level that some viewed as confirmation of the "peace trade."
Why the move may not be settled
- No deal yet. Iranian officials called Washington's response unsatisfactory, and a senior official said the sides were still far from a deal.
- Tight barrels. U.S. crude inventories drew sharply, a sign the physical market is tighter than futures prices imply.
- Fragile supply. The conflict has disrupted global energy supplies for eight months, so renewed fighting or a failed round of talks could reverse the drop quickly.
What to watch
- Abu Dhabi talks. Whether the Nov. 10–11 meetings produce a framework for reopening Hormuz.
- Price levels. Whether Brent holds below $95 or rebounds toward the $100 area it lost this week.
- Inventories. Weekly U.S. crude and fuel stock data for signs of demand strength.
- Related coverage. See our reports on the midterm market reaction, the AI infrastructure selloff and the Nasdaq's worst month.
Sources: Price levels and moves are as reported on Nov. 2 through Nov. 4 and can differ by venue and contract month. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.
Readers also read
Midterm Returns Hit Asian Tech: Nikkei Falls 2.9%, Nasdaq Futures Drop 1.8% and the Dollar Weakens
ResearchWhy AI Picks-and-Shovels Stocks Are Falling: Midterm Sweep, Moratorium Fears, Oracle's $20B Raise
ResearchNasdaq's Worst Month Since March 2025: What the Tech Selloff Means and What to Watch Next Week
RecapWeek Ahead: Midterms, Apple and AMD Earnings and the Jobs Report Test a Shaken Market
MarketCatalyst is not a registered investment advisor and does not manage client assets. Content on this platform is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice, and MarketCatalyst is not a stock-picking or trade-alert service. Trading stocks and options involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consider your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.