CAVA Misses Q3 Estimates as Comps Slow to 3.1%, but Raises FY26 Comps Guide to 6%-7%
Revenue, EPS and adjusted EBITDA all missed estimates and restaurant-level margin fell 120 basis points, but CAVA opened 24 restaurants, reached 500 and raised its full-year comps and openings outlook.
CAVA Group (CAVA) reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $353.7 million, up 22.1% from a year earlier but below the $359 million estimate, while EPS fell 8% to $0.11, below the $0.12 estimate. Same Restaurant Sales grew 3.1%, and the company raised its full-year comparable sales outlook to 6.0% to 7.0% from 4.5% to 6.5%.
Q3 scorecard
| Parameters | Expected | Actual | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.12 | $0.11 | Miss by 8.3% |
| Revenue | $359M | $353.7M | Miss by 1.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $44.3M | $42.3M | Miss by 4.5% |
| Net new restaurants | 19 | 24 | Beat by 26% |
| FY26 adjusted EBITDA guide (midpoint) | $187M | $186.5M | In line |
| Change | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | ▼ 8.3% | ▼ 42.1% |
| Revenue | ▲ 22.1% | ▼ 3.2% |
By our calculation, EPS missed the estimate by a cent, revenue missed it by about $5.3 million and adjusted EBITDA missed it by $2.0 million. CAVA opened five more restaurants than the 19 expected. Third-quarter 2025 revenue was $289.8 million and EPS was $0.12. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $365.4 million and EPS was $0.19.
Restaurant sales and growth
- Same Restaurant Sales. Same Restaurant Sales rose 3.1%, and guest traffic was slightly positive. The second quarter had grown 9.0%.
- Average unit volume. Average unit volume (AUV) was $3.1 million, up 7% from a year earlier.
- Openings. CAVA opened 24 net new restaurants, above the 19 expected, and opened its 500th restaurant ahead of schedule.
- Digital. Digital revenue was 38.5% of the mix, compared with 37.6% a year earlier.
Margins and profit
- Restaurant-level margin. Restaurant-level margin was 23.4%, down 120 basis points from 24.6% a year earlier.
- Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $42.3 million against the $44.3 million estimate. By our calculation it was up 5.8% from $40.0 million a year earlier.
FY26 outlook
| Metric | New range | Prior range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comparable sales | 6.0%-7.0% | 4.5%-6.5% | Raised |
| Net new restaurants | 76-78 | 75-77 | Raised |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $184.0M-$189.0M | $181.0M-$191.0M | Narrowed |
| Restaurant-level margin | 23.7%-24.0% | 23.7%-24.3% | Top end lowered |
| Pre-opening costs | $28.5M-$29.5M | $22.0M-$22.5M | Higher |
By our calculation, the comps midpoint rises to 6.5% from 5.5% and the adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $186.5 million from $186.0 million, against the $187 million estimate. The pre-opening cost midpoint rises about 30% to $29.0 million from $22.25 million.
What to watch
- Comps trend. Whether Same Restaurant Sales hold near 3% after the 9.0% second quarter, and whether traffic stays positive.
- Margin. Whether restaurant-level margin stays within the 23.7% to 24.0% range after falling to 23.4%.
- Opening costs. How the higher pre-opening costs and 76 to 78 net new restaurants affect profit.
- Related coverage. See our reports on McDonald's and Wayfair.
Sources: Results are from CAVA's third-quarter 2026 report. Estimates are consensus figures. Prior-year, second-quarter 2026 and prior-guidance figures are from the company's earlier releases. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.
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