Steel Dynamics Posts Record Shipments, but EPS of $5.26 Misses Estimates
Steel Dynamics ($STLD) reported record Q3 steel shipments and a 92% increase in earnings, although profits missed Wall Street expectations despite stronger-than-expected revenue.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported record third-quarter steel shipments and a 92% jump in earnings per share to $5.26, but profits fell short of Wall Street expectations even though revenue came in stronger than expected. Earnings of $5.26 a share missed the $5.41 estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.19 billion missed the $1.24 billion estimate. Revenue of $6.51 billion beat the $6.43 billion estimate.
Results versus expectations
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.51B | $6.43B | Beat |
| EPS | $5.26 | $5.41 | Miss |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.19B | $1.24B | Miss |
The EPS miss was about 2.8% and the adjusted EBITDA miss about 4%, by our calculation. Net income was $756 million, up from $404 million a year earlier. EPS of $5.26 compares with $2.74 in the third quarter of 2025 and $3.69 in the second quarter of 2026, so earnings also rose about 43% from the prior quarter. Net sales rose from $4.8 billion a year earlier to $6.5 billion, and operating income was about $1.0 billion, up 44% from the second quarter, according to the company.
Steel operations
| Steel metric | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|
| Steel shipments | 3.8 million tons (record) |
| Average selling price | $1,400 per ton, up $102 from Q2 |
| Average ferrous scrap cost | $404 per ton, down $8 from Q2 |
| Steel segment operating income | $1.03 billion, up 43% from Q2 |
The steel segment drove the quarter. Higher selling prices and lower scrap costs widened the spread between what the company charges and what it pays for raw material. Chairman and CEO Mark Millett said steel prices continued to improve throughout the quarter.
Demand outlook
Steel fabrication operating income was $91 million, and its order backlog is 50% higher than a year ago, with commitments extending into the second quarter of 2027. Metals recycling earned $33 million, down $15 million from the second quarter. The company gave no numerical earnings guidance but said it remains optimistic about domestic steel and aluminum demand into 2027 and beyond.
Aluminum expansion
All three of the company's aluminum cold mills are now operational. The first continuous annealing line is expected to ship finished automotive products before year-end, and the second is expected to start in early 2027. The aluminum segment posted an operating loss of $26.2 million, about 21% smaller than in the second quarter, and the company said it reached breakeven on an EBITDA basis. It shipped 55,000 metric tons of flat-rolled aluminum sheet. Management expects aluminum volumes and profitability to improve in the fourth quarter and through 2027.
Cash and capital returns
| Measure | Latest |
|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $846 million |
| Share repurchases, Q3 | $276 million (about 1% of common stock) |
| Share repurchases, year to date | $591 million |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.53 per share |
| Liquidity at September 30 | $2.4 billion |
The company generated $846 million of operating cash flow, repurchased $276 million of stock and ended September with $2.4 billion of liquidity. For other metals earnings, see our Carpenter Technology preview.
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