Oil Slides Nearly 8% as Hopes for a US-Iran Breakthrough Pull WTI Back to About $96

Oil fell sharply on Monday, Nov. 2, as reports that the Trump administration wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time pulled crude back from a six-month high. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $95.91 a barrel in afternoon trading, down $8.21, or 7.89%, from Friday's $104.12 close. Brent futures fell about 8% to below $105, according to published reports. Prices are delayed by about 15 minutes and were still moving.

How the session traded

By our calculation, WTI opened about 1.7% below Friday's close, never traded back above $102.75 and at the low was about 8.6% under the prior close. The slide came after a rally: Brent and WTI rose roughly 15% and 12% in October to their highest levels since April, according to published reports, as strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. threats against Iran raised supply fears.

What changed on diplomacy

• Trump's stance. President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wants to give talks with Tehran more time before considering further strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday no decision had been made on renewed strikes.
• Qatar-mediated talks. An Iranian delegation met mediators in Qatar on Saturday. The talks have produced proposal language but no agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said consultations through mediators are “very intensive.”
• Opposition to escalation. China and Russia have publicly opposed a full resumption of hostilities.

Trump has also said the U.S. will end the war “one way or the other,” and reports say the military has briefed him on options for a major escalation after Tuesday's midterm elections. A deal is not in hand.

Supply risks have not gone away

Shipping attacks continued over the weekend. A vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, following an attack on an LNG tanker on Friday. The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2026 Middle East growth forecasts, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had assumed.

Goldman says substantial downside supply risks should sustain a large near-term risk premium, even as Middle East output recovers. UBS cites record freight costs, tight tanker capacity and recovering Chinese imports. By our calculation, Goldman's December target is roughly in line with Monday's Brent level, and UBS sees prices higher still.

Why it matters beyond energy

Higher oil has fed inflation and rate-hike worries, which weighed on metals last week. A sustained drop would ease some of that pressure, though a single session does not change the trend. See our gold and silver recap for how oil has fed into rate expectations.

What to watch

• Talks. Whether the Qatar track produces a signed framework or breaks down.
• Midterms. Tuesday's elections and any shift in U.S. posture afterward, including the escalation options reported.
• Hormuz. More attacks on shipping or a sustained reopening, which would drive freight costs and supply.
• Inventories and prices. Weekly U.S. crude inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• Market read-through. See our Week Ahead and Research Desk analysis of the tech selloff.

Sources: The U.S. Energy Information Administration at eia.gov for U.S. supply data. WTI levels come from a delayed market quote; Brent levels, diplomatic developments and forecasts come from published reports and change quickly. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.