Options Traders Pile Into Solar Calls Ahead of Midterm Results, With TAN Volume 40 Times Normal
Lower Treasury yields are also lifting the group, and Enphase is still well below where it traded before last week's 20% post-earnings drop.
Options traders piled into solar stocks on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, buying calls on the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) in what looks like a bet on a clean-energy rally if Democrats gain in the midterms, as prediction markets reportedly price. Heavy call buying shows bullish positioning but does not guarantee a rally, and the group is also being lifted by falling interest rates.
Where the options volume went
| Ticker | Stock move | Options activity | Popular trades |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAN | Not reported | Over 20,000 contracts by midday versus fewer than 500 a day, 99% calls | December $50 calls at $0.80; near-term $46 to $47 calls |
| SEDG | +6%, about $32 | About 3 times average volume, calls above 75% | Friday $35 calls |
| ENPH | +9%, about $30.50 | About double normal volume, about 8,600 calls versus under 900 puts | January $35 calls at $2.45 |
By our calculation, the TAN December $50 call at $0.80 breaks even at $50.80, and the Enphase January $35 call at $2.45 breaks even at $37.45, about 23% above Enphase's roughly $30.49 price. The SolarEdge Friday $35 strike is about 9% above its roughly $32.12 price before counting the premium, and Enphase calls outnumbered puts by roughly 10 to 1. Options that expire worthless lose the whole premium, so these are leveraged bets on a quick move.
More than the election
The election is not the only driver. Solar stocks rallied as the 10-year Treasury yield eased through October to its low on Oct. 30, which helps residential solar, where financing costs matter, and growth stocks broadly have been bouncing ahead of the vote. Sunrun rose about 7% on Tuesday, and First Solar gained about 3%.
The sector has been under pressure. Sunrun is down about 52% for the year, and Enphase fell 20% after its Oct. 27 report, when revenue dropped 28.5% from a year earlier to $293.3 million and its fourth-quarter guidance midpoint of $240 million missed expectations. Its chief executive said there is no meaningful U.S. demand recovery, tying the weakness to higher rates and the expiration of the federal residential solar tax credit.
The reports that Enphase has fully recovered last week's drop do not match the math. A 20% drop needs a gain of 25% to recover, and the stock is still down about 9% over the past month, so Tuesday's 9% gain recovered only part of the loss.
Catalysts ahead
- SolarEdge earnings. SolarEdge is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Wednesday, Nov. 4, which explains the short-dated call buying. The company returned to adjusted operating profitability in the second quarter for the first time since 2023.
- Sunrun earnings. Sunrun reports on Nov. 4.
- Election results. Control of Congress shapes how markets view the future of clean-energy tax policy.
- Rates. A reversal in Treasury yields would remove one tailwind.
What to watch
- Wednesday's reaction. Whether the call buyers are rewarded or the stocks sell the news.
- Volume follow-through. Whether options activity stays elevated after the votes are counted.
- Related coverage. See our Week Ahead preview, the Nasdaq analysis and our Apple recap.
Sources: Company reports and filings on the SEC website, including SolarEdge's earnings announcements and Enphase's third-quarter 2026 results. Options volumes, prices and prediction-market pricing come from published reports and market data and may change. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice, and options carry a risk of total loss.
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