Marriott Raises 2026 Outlook as Q3 EPS Jumps 22% to $3.02 and RevPAR Climbs 6.5%
Demand held up beyond World Cup markets and fee growth accelerated, but Middle East declines should deepen in Q4 and global construction starts fell, with shares near $416.
Marriott International (MAR) beat third-quarter expectations, guided fourth-quarter earnings above consensus and raised its full-year outlook, as global RevPAR, the hotel industry's revenue per available room, grew 6.5%. Adjusted EPS rose 22% to $3.02, against a consensus of about $2.84, on revenue of $7.01 billion, up 8%. Shares were trading near $416, up about 4% in morning trading. Marriott CEO Tony Capuano said travel demand "has been remarkably robust this year despite geopolitical uncertainty."
Third-quarter results
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.02 | Up 22%; about 6% above consensus of $2.84, by our calculation |
| Revenue | $7.01B | Up 8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.51B | Up 12%; G&A up only 2% |
| Adjusted net income | Up 17% | About 4% fewer diluted shares lifted EPS growth above net income growth |
| Gross fees | $1.52B | Up 14% |
| Incentive management fees | $181M | Up 22% on better hotel profitability |
Results included a benefit of about $0.03 per share from an expected insurance recovery. By our calculation, excluding it, adjusted EPS would still be about $2.99, above consensus.
Demand across segments
| RevPAR measure | Q3 growth |
|---|---|
| Worldwide | Up 6.5% (average daily rate up 4.8%; occupancy up 1.1 points to 72.5%) |
| U.S. and Canada | Up 7.4%, or 6.2% excluding the World Cup |
| U.S./Canada luxury | Up 12% |
| U.S./Canada select-service | Up more than 6% |
| Global leisure | Up 7% |
| Global group | Up 6% |
| Global business transient | Up 4% |
| Middle East | Down 12%, an improvement from a decline of more than 40% in Q2 |
The split matters. Luxury grew fastest, but select-service, the mainstream tier, also grew more than 6%, and the 6.2% U.S. and Canada growth excluding the World Cup shows demand was not confined to host cities. Fees also gained from co-branded credit cards and new rooms.
Outlook
| Item | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Q4 adjusted EPS | $3.14 to $3.21, versus consensus of about $3.01 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS | $12.07 to $12.14, up 20% to 21% |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $6.075B to $6.098B |
| Q4 and 2026 RevPAR growth | 4.5% to 5.0% |
| Q4 adjusted EBITDA growth | 12% to 14% |
| Net rooms growth | Near the low end of 4.5% to 5.0% |
| Shareholder returns | At least $4.8B in 2026 |
| Investment spending | $1.25B to $1.35B |
| Preliminary 2027 RevPAR growth | 3.5% to 4.5% |
By our calculation, the Q4 EPS guidance midpoint of about $3.175 is roughly 5.5% above consensus. Full-year credit-card fees are expected to grow in the high-30% range and residential branding fees by more than 90%, though quarterly residential fees are lumpy because they depend on unit sales timing. Q4 incentive management fees are expected to be roughly flat after Q3's 22% gain. The 2027 RevPAR view assumes easier comparisons in Europe, the Middle East and Africa offset the World Cup headwind, and the company is still in its budgeting process.
What could cap the rally
- Middle East. Cancellations of large events and tougher peak-season comparisons are expected to deepen declines in Q4, pushing EMEA growth negative.
- Development. The company reports global construction starts down about 24%, with data-quality caveats, even as U.S. and Canada new-build starts rose 20% through nine months. Conversions of existing hotels made up more than 40% of year-to-date openings.
- Balance sheet. Debt was $16.8 billion, while shareholder returns of at least $4.8 billion are planned.
- Valuation. Shares were near $416, above the roughly $404 level that marked a 52-week high on Oct. 21, by published reports, leaving less room for disappointment.
The pipeline reached a record of more than 634,000 rooms, with about 278,000 under construction or pending conversion, which supports fee growth from net rooms growth of 4.6%.
What to watch
- Whether the move holds. Morning gains need to survive the session. See the full week's calendar in our Week Ahead article.
- Lodging peers. Read-through to other travel and consumer names that report this week; compare with our coverage of IDEXX and Starbucks.
- Q4 RevPAR. The guided 4.5% to 5.0% implies a slowdown from Q3's 6.5% as World Cup comparisons and Middle East weakness bite.
- 2027 setup. A 3.5% to 4.5% RevPAR range will be refined with full-year results.
Sources: Marriott International third-quarter 2026 results announcement and its earnings release filed with the SEC. Consensus estimates and the share price are from market data and will change. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.
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