New Home Sales Slip Only 0.6% to 676,000 as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Holds at -2
New home sales slipped 0.6% to a 676,000 annual pace in September, much better than the 4.5% drop forecast, while the median price fell 3.9% from a year ago to $400,400 and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index held at -2.
New home sales slipped 0.6% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to the Census Bureau and HUD, far better than the 4.5% decline economists expected and ahead of the roughly 650,000 forecast. The median sales price was $400,400, down 3.9% from a year ago. Separately, the Richmond Fed manufacturing composite index held at -2 in October.
New home sales
| Measure | September 2026 | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales rate (annualized) | 676,000 | ~650,000 | 680,000 (revised from 684,000) |
| Change from prior month | −0.6% | −4.5% | +6.4% (as first reported) |
| Change from a year ago | −5.3% | — | −2.0% (August) |
| Median sales price | $400,400 (−3.9% yr/yr) | — | −5.8% yr/yr (August) |
| Average sales price | $472,800 (−6.7% yr/yr) | — | — |
By our calculation, the sales pace came in about 4% above the forecast. August was revised down to 680,000 from 684,000, which is why the monthly decline is 0.6% rather than the 1.2% a comparison with the original figure would give. The median price was also up 3.9% from August's revised $385,400, though mix shifts between regions and home sizes can swing median prices month to month.
Inventory and regions
| Measure | September 2026 | August 2026 | Year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes for sale | 476,000 | 481,000 | −2.3% yr/yr |
| Months' supply | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Northeast sales | 32,000 (+28.0%) | 25,000 | 29,000 |
| Midwest sales | 89,000 (−7.3%) | 96,000 | 97,000 |
| South sales | 413,000 (−6.6%) | 442,000 | 416,000 |
| West sales | 142,000 (+21.4%) | 117,000 | 172,000 |
Supply remains ample at 8.4 months at the current sales pace, a little tighter than August but above the 8.2 months a year ago. The South, the largest market, was the biggest drag on the monthly figure, falling by 29,000 from August. The West rebounded sharply from August but was still about 17% below a year ago. Regional figures are volatile, and the Census Bureau cautions that monthly changes in the report are often within its margin of error: in August, the margin on the monthly change was about 19.5 percentage points.
Richmond Fed manufacturing index
| Component | October | September |
|---|---|---|
| Composite index | −2 | −2 |
| Shipments | 0 | −5 |
| New orders | −8 | −6 |
| Employment | 3 | 7 |
The Richmond Fed composite, a gauge of Fifth District factory activity where readings below zero signal contraction, was unchanged from September's -2, which had been a drop from 4 in August. Shipments improved to flat, but new orders weakened further and hiring cooled.
What it means for investors
The new home sales report points to demand that is holding steady rather than recovering: sales are near last month's pace, but they are 5% lower than a year ago, supply is plentiful and prices are lower, which suggests builders are leaning on price cuts and incentives to move homes. The factory survey tells a similar story of an economy that is neither accelerating nor collapsing, with falling new orders a reason for caution on near-term manufacturing activity.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Monthly New Residential Sales (Sept. data, Oct. 27); Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity. Forecasts are economist estimates. This is informational, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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