Palantir Guides Q4 Revenue to $2.65B, About $190M Above Consensus, After Q3 Revenue Jumps 96%
U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% and adjusted EPS beat by $0.03, but shares had slid ahead of the report and closed down 3.1% at $178.34.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion in results released after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, well above the $2.46 billion FactSet consensus. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share against a consensus of about $0.41. It also raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to about $8.53 billion. Shares closed at $178.34, down $5.77, before the report.
Third-quarter results
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Versus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.313B | +96% year over year; guide was $2.160B to $2.164B |
| U.S. commercial revenue | Up 148% | Year over year |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.44 | Consensus about $0.41 |
| Net income | $1.134B | GAAP |
By our calculation, Q3 revenue came in about $149 million, or 6.9%, above the top of Palantir's own guidance, and about 6% above the roughly $2.18 billion consensus.
Guidance
| Item | New guidance | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 revenue | $2.649B to $2.653B | FactSet consensus $2.46B |
| 2026 revenue | $8.530B to $8.534B | Prior $8.150B to $8.158B; consensus about $8.2B |
| 2026 adjusted operating income | $5.245B to $5.249B | Raised outlook |
By our calculation, the Q4 midpoint of $2.651 billion is about $191 million, or 7.8%, above consensus. The full-year revenue midpoint is about $378 million, or 4.6%, above the prior midpoint, and it implies about 91% growth for 2026.
The stock into the print
Palantir shares closed at $178.34 on Monday, down $5.77, or about 3.1%, after a four-day losing streak, and were reported little changed immediately after the release. Guidance of this size raises the bar for the next report and shifts attention to whether commercial demand can keep compounding.
What to watch
- Conference call. The call begins at 5:00 p.m. ET. Listen for management commentary on U.S. commercial demand, AI platform deployments and the pipeline behind the Q4 guide.
- Margins and cash flow. Adjusted operating margin and free cash flow, which determine how much of the growth reaches profit.
- Government. Momentum in U.S. government contracts and the pace of new awards.
- Valuation. How the shares trade after the report, following four straight losing sessions.
- Related coverage. See our analysis of the Nasdaq selloff, Oracle's bond sale and Tempus AI earnings.
Sources: Palantir's investor relations site and its third-quarter 2026 results release. Consensus figures come from FactSet and published reports and may differ by source. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.
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