Tempus AI Surges as Q3 Revenue Climbs 23%, Adjusted EBITDA Turns Positive and Guidance Rises

Tempus AI (TEM) shares jumped more than 11% on Monday, Nov. 2, after the precision medicine company reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $411.5 million, up 23% from a year earlier, and its first positive adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted earnings were $0.07 per share, compared with a loss of $0.11 a year ago. Tempus raised its full-year revenue guidance to $1.60 billion to $1.605 billion, about 25% growth, and kept its adjusted EBITDA outlook near $65 million. The stock closed at $72.22 on Friday.

Q3 results

Adjusted EPS of $0.07 compares with a consensus of about $0.01, according to published reports, while GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.08. Oncology test volume grew 32%, and the company said growth is accelerating. About 12,000 minimal residual disease (MRD) tests were run, up 300%. Insights, the data licensing line, grew 29%.

By our calculation, the net loss narrowed about 81% from a year ago, Diagnostics made up about 74% of revenue, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was about 6.2%. The net loss also includes $42.8 million of unrealized gains on marketable securities, so excluding that item the loss would have been about $57.7 million. Stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes were $50.8 million.

Raised guidance

CEO Eric Lefkofsky said on the call, “This quarter, we made the turn.” Management said it prefers durable growth of about 25% over a short burst near 30% that then slows, and expects to keep reinvesting about two-thirds of incremental gross profit, with about one-third reaching adjusted EBITDA.

What drives the next phase

• Test pricing. Management expects about $80 million of added revenue in 2027 from higher average selling prices after the expanded FDA approval of its xT test for tumor-only use, with pricing effective Jan. 1, 2027.
• Data deals. A Bristol Myers Squibb collaboration is worth up to $137.5 million over five years, and a separate Alzheimer's data deal with Pathos is worth $55 million over five years. By our calculation, that totals about $192.5 million. Data licensing bookings exceed $550 million so far this year.
• MRD. Management expects MRD unit economics to turn positive by mid-2027.
• Partnerships and approvals. A multi-year collaboration with Merck and Moderna on an individualized cancer therapy, and two new FDA 510(k) clearances for ECG-PH and ECG-MR.

What to watch

• Personalis. Shareholders vote on Tempus's acquisition of Personalis on Nov. 30, with closing expected in the fourth quarter.
• Profit durability. Whether adjusted EBITDA holds near the roughly $34 million Q4 guide, since GAAP losses remain.
• Reimbursement. Coverage and pricing for MRD and the xT test, which drive the 2027 uplift.
• Volatility. The stock moves sharply on results, so the follow-through after Monday's jump matters.
• Other earnings. See our coverage of IDEXX, Marriott and Starbucks.

Sources: Tempus's investor relations site and its third-quarter 2026 results release. Consensus figures and the stock move come from published reports and may differ by source. Items labeled by our calculation are our own arithmetic. This article is informational only and is not investment advice.